Sunday, August 12, 2007

Run Badly, Break Even

Survival.

Not one word is more important in the grand cosmic ideology of poker.

One must always keep his head above water, if nothing else. That should be his primary concern; not to win big, not to play a certain style, or to play his cards. Surviving is always paramount, and not just in tournaments, but in cash games too. If your bankroll is in trouble, then you need to do whatever you have to do guarantee its immediate survival- lower your stakes, change your playing style, or switch games.

I have become a master of survival in the last few weeks. I have been consistently (probably 75% of the time) beating the .10/.25 NL game on Pokerstars since my bankroll train-wrecked. Winning in a game filled with so many loose players is quite a task, and to do so I've had to tighten up many loose ends strewn throughout my game. I am only taking about .75-1 buy-in every hour and a half or so on average- but I am surviving. I am being forced to take huge chances by accepting 5:1 edges before the flop in order to make money- but I am surviving. I am playing boring, tedious poker- but I'm surviving.

UPDATE: I just dropped 2 buy-ins. In the first, I made an all-in call after a flurry of betting on an 8 high, all-spade flop, with 9d9s. He had me drawing close to dead with AcAs. Then I rebought, won a couple of pots, and then gave it all back in one dramatic hand. I called a min-raise from the cut-off with 8cTc, and in a three-way pot the flop fell 9c-Jc-3h. EP bet .25, and the min-raiser made it 1.25 to go. I called with my monster draw, and EP folded. The turn was the As, and he checked it to me. I fired 3.00, and he called. The river was a blank, the 6d. He checked again, and I put him on exactly QJ. I pushed my last 12.60 into a pot of 8.00+ and he took only a second before calling with...QJ. I'm not sure how he can make that call and think he had the best hand, but to each his own I suppose.

That's the synopsis of my online play- just .10/.25NL Hold'em, and it's enough to make a man go mad. Until I work my way up quite a ways again, I will be staying away from other games, as well as tournaments that aren't 4.40 180's. Although playing in those donkament 180's has very low equity, I consider myself to be pretty damn good at them, and a win would bolster my bankroll tremendously.

I am thinking about putting some money on UltimateBet and Full Tilt once I get my bearings back on Pokerstars- any thoughts?

Me and the guys have had some good live games lately. My hot streak in those shorthanded Hold'em tourneys has ended, but I've been doing well overall. We played a razz tournament the other day that got totally sick- Drokk busted out early, and Ian and I both told him he couldn't rebuy. But after some coaxing we allowed him back in, and he went on his usual sick rush of cards. We got it heads-up between us, and he had a lead until I made an 8-6 and nearly doubled up. He verbally conceded the match, but went on to steam roll me until I was nearly felted. I made another comeback, and the heads-up dragged on for what felt like years. I think it finally ended when Drokk caught an eight-outer on 6th street when we were all-in at 400/800 (50).

We played some more Hold'em on Friday night, as well as a PL Omaha tournament. I finished third, third, and second in Hold'em, busting in very frustrating situations each time. In the first game, in the 1.00/2.00 round, I pushed in the BB with 88 and got called by Drokk's AKs that he had limped in with. He flopped top pair, a straight draw, and a flush draw. That crippled me to around 12.00, and I pushed with Q8 the next hand. I was called by AT, and I bricked out. So, yeah, it's frustrating to lose a 60/40 on both sides in back-to-back hands, especially for your tournament life. On the plus side, Ian played absolutely amazing en route to a victory. I've never seen him more aggressive. The key pot he took against Roy was when he fired out 15.00 with 33 on a J-9-J-9 board. It was definitely good to see him take one down.

The next game I got it all-in when we were three handed with Kx and was called by Qx. The turn paired my opponents hand (I don't remember if it was Mike or Ian) and I was out.

I decided to play the third tournament a little differently. I decided that if I had to rebuy multiple times, it was not an issue- my only concern was winning. I was going to push in all the spots I thought my opponents were weak, and I was going to play super, super aggressive. It worked out very well, and I had a mountain of chips going into heads-up against Mike. I doubled him up when he got relatively short stacked, and then he took a big pot off of me to take the chip lead. That is when I put my foot back on the gas. With blinds at 2.50/5.00 and with a stack of around 35.00, I pushed almost every hand preflop. After taking a few blinds uncontested, I caught TT and earned a call from an Ace-rag. I doubled through and retook the chiplead. Only this time, I didn't slow down. Three hands later I pushed with A7 from the button, and he called with QJo. That is well below the starting requirement for him to ever have a +EV outcome in this type of hand. It should be an instant fold, unless he is willing to commit his entire stack to a situation where he may be completely dominated. Even if he knows I am pushing with every single hand (which I wasn't), K2 is a favorite to QJ, as well as almost any other hand I would be moving with. I don't know why I am griping- I am more than happy to get it all-in right there, and I should be willing to exploit my percentage advantage over the long run. But when the board ran out 9-T-3-8-Q, I was more disappointed than anything.

The PL Omaha tournament was a blast. We played 15 minute levels with unlimited rebuys for the first three, so it created a game with lots of play and lots of ridiculous chip swings. I built a monster stack in the first level, then doubled Drokk and Ian up in consecutive hands. We were three handed when rebuys ended, and then Ian went out in third. The heads-up match between Derek and I was insane. With a 3:1 chiplead, I flopped the nut straight with J-8 on a T-7-9 board and we got it all in. His TT wasn't behind for long, as the turn came a 7 to leave me drawing dead. I rebuilt my lead and got it all in again, this time with my JJ way ahead on a 3-7-J-T board. The river came a Q to spike him a straight. Eventually I had the lead once again, going into the final hand. I held Js-7s-10d-5d, and bet a flop of Jd-Ts-3h. He called, and the turn came the As. I checked, and he potted. I called, and the river came the Qs. I pushed it all in, and he called with KQ for the turned straight. I took it down with the second nut flush. I would love to sit here and analyze this hand completely, but frankly I haven't the time or the patience, so do it in the Arabianmonkey forums, or in the comment section, and I will chime in with my own thoughts.

-The Gerk-

4 comments:

thedouginator said...

You do an awful lot of griping....I feel you should pick apart your own play more and not the play of others...I am sure you made numerous mistakes against me and I know their were a number of times I outplayed you....why not include those?

The Gerk said...

Well...

One, in the specific part of the post about you I said "I shouldn't gripe...", therefore you aren't bringing anything I wasn't already aware of to my attention.

Two, while I do make mistakes, it was your mistake/ Derek's mistake/ etc. that made the bigger impact, i.e. deciding the outcome of the tournament. I am sure I slipped up and/or missed a few plays against you, but that is to be expected. I am not a perfect player and I have never pretended to be so.

Three, when I make mistakes, which I do plenty of, I am upfront about them, like in the online portion of the update when I got it all-in drawing to two outs with 99 v. AA.

And four, the beats that I take make better literature than rambling about what I need to fix in my game- and if I showcase all the mistakes I'm making, is that not counterproductive, seeing as most of my readers are also the people I play against?

thedouginator said...

Well....

I believe the pot you are talking about that I won was when the pot odds were right for me to call....I think I already had a good amount of chips in the pot and I was down enough to where I needed to make a play....It just sounds to me you pick and choose what pots are big...I felt like the big pot that shifted the momentum was when you bluffed after the flop, turn, and river on one hand and I pushed you out of the pot on a reraise on the river....also...most of your readers are not people you play against....for the most part the readers are people who have no idea who you are

If you are going to write about a specific tournament...why not include the mistakes you made...if a reader is coming to your blog to read about low stakes poker than I am sure they want to know what not to do

The Gerk said...

Don't pull a phrase out of your ass like "pot odds" or "making a move" when you have no idea what it means.

In the tournament in question, there were five players and two rebuys, and therefore 140.00 of chips in play. In the QJ v. A7 hand, I had just doubled up literally a hand or two before to take a VERY slight chiplead. If you recall, after I lost that pot I was all-in with my BB the very next hand- you called in the dark and we played the hand with the cards face up. Therefore the stacks were approximately even. The hand went as follows.

Mike: (67.00)Posts BB (6.00)
Paul: (73.00)Posts SB (3.00)

Paul: Moves all-in (73.00 total)
Mike: Calls all-in (67.00 total)

Paul shows Ac7d
Mike shows QhJd

Flop: 9-x-T
Turn: 8
River: Q

Since you clearly don't know what "pot odds" are, let me explain them to you. Pot odds are calculated, generally when making a call with a draw, to determine whether or not a player has the proper equity (or return on investment) to commit a certain amount of money to a pot. For example, if you had a flush draw on the turn of one particular hand, you would thus have 9 outs to the best hand. If the pot was 10.00, and I bet 5.00, you would not have the proper equity (ROI) to call the bet, seeing as calling 5.00 into a 15.00 pot would only be giving you a 3:1 ROI. The odds for you to make your hand are roughly 18% (or 4:1), making it improper to call.

In our example, you had committed exactly 6.00 into a pot that became worth your entire stack. So therefore, you had to call 61.00 in a 73.00 pot (your BB is considered no longer yours). You were getting roughly 2.2:1 on a call, that is to say, you need to be 100% sure that your QJ is AT LEAST a 66% favorite in the hand (we'll ignore the fact the you are making the call for your tournament life, of 15.00 real money.) Pot odds do not necessarily imply to to this pot, because you are calling off your entire stack before the flop. But if they did, you would still not have the right price to call- QJ is a favorite against only about 50% of hands, not even close to the 2/3 advantage you are looking for.

And you certainly weren't pot committed, seeing as after your BB you still had 61.00 (10+BBs). While this would be a relative short stack in many tournaments, if I had just stolen the blinds, I would only have 12BBs.

And don't try to tell me you "needed to make a play," a play implies that you are the one doing the betting, not calling off your stack with a donk hand.

Before you post on my blog and accuse me of not knowing what I'm talking about, make sure you get your facts straight and MAYBE learn what the terms you're using actually mean.