The Analysis of a Hand

If you haven't read the comments section of the previous blog post, refer to them first before reading this one. In summary, this particular hand decided a 5-handed NL Hold'em tournament that some friends and I played on Friday. My opponent seems to believe that the call he made was correct, and that I shouldn't "gripe," but the objective of this analysis is to prove that it was not only an incorrect call, but a VERY incorrect call.

In the tournament in question, there were five players and two rebuys, with each player starting with 20.00 in chips. Therefore, there are 140.00 of chips in play. We are heads-up at this point, and I have just doubled up to take a VERY slight chiplead when my TT held up against Ax all-in preflop. After I lost the pot in question, I was all-in with my BB the very next hand- my opponent called in the dark and we played the hand with the hole cards face up. Therefore the stacks were approximately even, with me having a 6.00 (or one BB) chiplead. The hand went as follows.

The Douginator (67.00): Posts BB (6.00)
The Gerk (73.00): Posts SB (3.00)

The Gerk: Moves all-in (73.00 total)
The Douginator: Calls all-in (67.00 total)

The Gerk shows Ac7d
The Douginator shows QhJd

Flop: 9-x-T
Turn: 8
River: Q
Board reads: 9-x-T-8-Q

The Douginator takes the pot (134.00) with a straight, 8 to Q.

Since some of you may not understand what "pot odds" are, let me explain them to you. Pot odds are calculated, generally when making a call with a draw, to determine whether or not a player has the proper equity (or return on investment) to commit a certain amount of money to a pot.

For example, lets said you had a flush draw on the turn of one particular hand, and would thus have 9 outs to the best hand. If the pot was 10.00, and I bet 8.00, you would not have the proper equity (ROI) to call the bet, seeing as calling 8.00 into a 18.00 pot would only be giving you a 2.5:1 ROI. The odds for you to make your hand are roughly 18% (or 4:1), making it improper to call. I would have to bet a maximum of about 3.25 in order for it to be a proper call with your draw (and you should always look for situations when you're getting BETTER than the proper odds on your money, i.e. getting 5:1 on a call with a 3:1 lead)

In our example, The Douginator had committed exactly 6.00 into a pot that became worth his entire stack. In other words, he had to call 61.00 in a 73.00 pot (the BB is considered no longer his). He was getting roughly 2.2:1 on a call, that is to say, you need to be 100% sure that your QJ is AT LEAST a 66% favorite in the hand in order to call (we'll ignore the fact that he is making the call for his tournament life, or 15.00 real money.) Pot odds do not necessarily imply to to this pot, because he is calling off his entire stack before the flop. But if they did, he would still not have the right price to call- QJ is a favorite against only about 50% of hands (Q8 is the exact median), not even close to the 2/3 advantage you would be looking for.

And he certainly wasn't pot committed, seeing as after his BB he still had 61.00 (10+BBs). While this would be a relative short stack in many tournaments, if I had just stolen the blinds, I would only have 12BBs.

You may be asking, but what should he have done with QJ in that spot?

FOLD.

If he had any read on me whatsoever, he would know that I was never pushing with less than QJ. Although I was being very aggressive with the blinds so high, and I was moving with QK, Kx, Ax, any pair, as well as any big hand, I was certainly not going to risk my tournament with a dead average hand. He would need to put me on a completely random hand in order to justify a call (not based in any way on pot odds, as he assumed). My range would have to include smaller Jacks and smaller Queens, as well has hands he had a smaller advantage over, like 8-5 and 3-4. If you would like to input a range of hands to determine whether or not a call was justified, please google poker odds calculator or visit flopturnriver.com and have at it.

In the comment post he claimed he "needed to make a play." A play implies that he is the one doing the betting, not calling off his stack with a very average hand. If he wanted to make a play, he could have very easily folded QJ and pushed all-in in position when he had the button the next hand, and 9 times out of 10 taken his BB back.

And to say that the QJ hand did not decide the tournament is completely ignorant- a hand that gives one player a 134.00 to 6.00 chiplead is a pretty consequential hand. And it would have been avoided had he not fallen in love with two facecards.

I'm not saying QJ is not playable- but it is definitely not playable when facing an all-in. It should be folded in EP and MP at a full table. In LP, it is acceptable to limp with it as long as there are other limpers and hope to flop a set or a straight. On the button, it is profitable to raise with it in hopes to steal, but if you are reraised, you are almost certainly way behind. In blind v. blind confrontations, raising is best since many SBs complete with inferior hands as bad as J2 or 83.

For more on pot odds, getting proper ROI, implied odds, and the minimum starting requirements to call an all-in bet, please look up ZeeJustin's blog (I'm too lazy to provide a link). He goes into great detail about how and why it is not only profitable but essential to push in blind v. blind confrontations. He also breaks down what hands you would need to call such a bet, and QJ is obviously not among them.

And a note to all:

Although I am more than willing to admit my mistakes, especially in a game of incomplete information such as Hold'em, make sure you know that you are correct before you post about it. Before you reply on my blog and accuse me of not knowing what I'm talking about, get your facts straight and MAYBE learn what the terms you're using actually mean.

-The Gerk-